If you’re a fan of football betting, whether it’s for the Premier League or LaLiga, a lot has changed over the past few years. Now, punters have a choice when they want to place a bet: use a traditional sportsbook, such as bet365, or go with one of the fresh ‘prediction market’ sites instead, like Polymarket or Kalshi. On the surface, these two different platforms allow you to do the same thing, which is to place wagers on the outcome of football events, but they’re structured in very different ways. Here, let’s break down the differences between them so that you can get started. 

What is a Prediction Market? 

■ Prediction market football betting involves choosing simple ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ outcomes for events 

■ The bets are classified as contracts 

■ You can bet on different markets, like ‘Yes’ for Both Teams to Score or ‘No’ for Manchester City to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League 

Since around 2021, there’s been an explosive rise in prediction market platforms. Through prediction markets, you place bets, known as contracts, on the outcome of a huge range of future events, not just football. Unsurprisingly, sports trading accounts for the majority of prediction market activity, with Pew Research reporting that 39% of Polymarket’s total trading volume from 2024 onwards has been for sports.

There are no odds involved on prediction market sites. Instead, you simply bet ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ on a specific outcome happening. For example, if Manchester United are playing Villa at Old Trafford in the Premier League, you might bet £10 on ‘Yes’ for a United win. Whichever prediction market you’re using will then let you know the potential payout for your turns if it turns out to be successful. 

The payout depends on what the initial cost of the contract you accepted. If, say, Manchester United were priced at £0.70, this means they’ve been given an implied probability of 70%. So, if you bet £10 on this particular ‘Yes’ contract, you’d win back £14.29, including your original stake. 

Essentially, across prediction market platforms, you’re trading against other users with prices that move based on the supply and demand. And because the bets are technically classified as contracts, they’re regulated by the CTFC and don’t fall under the same legal umbrella as sportsbooks do. Off the back of this, prediction market sites are legal in significantly more countries and states due to the fact they don’t have to abide by traditional gambling laws (this is good news for football bettors, who can access them more easily). 

The other major distinction to keep in mind is that prediction market platforms are letting you trade contracts against your peers. In other words, other football fans. On traditional sportsbooks like Sky Bet and Paddy Power, you’re betting against the house. 

⚡ Prediction Markets vs Sportsbooks 

So, when comparing prediction markets and sportsbooks, it’s relatively simple. With both, you’re risking money on the outcome of football events. But on prediction markets, the bets are classed as financial ‘contracts’ and you’re selecting Yes or No for a specific outcome to happen. On sportsbooks, it’s classic gambling where there are usually hundreds more available markets, as deep as whether specific players will get yellow carded or not, all of which have specific odds attached to them. 

Imagine you want to bet on Arsenal to win the 2026-27 Premier League title. On Polymarket, it’s a simple ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ contract priced anywhere from £0.01 to £1. With an operator like bet365, you’re looking at current odds of around 5/6 at the current stage of the season. 

The Fees and Costs Involved

Naturally, the big aspect a lot of football bettors are interested in is the fees involved with prediction markets compared to sportsbooks .On average, prediction markets tend to charge extremely low trading fees, typically in the 1% to 2% range. The ‘vig’ of sportsbooks is higher and can go as high as 5%, so you technically pay a little bit more when betting via sportsbooks. For some, it’s only a small amount so it doesn’t bother them, but for some the lower fees associated with prediction markets are enough alone for them to make the switch. 

Prediction Markets Are More Limited 

One of the downsides of prediction markets when it comes to football betting is that you’re significantly more limited with the bets you can place. 

Traditional sportsbooks offer hundreds of markets for individual games, whereas Polymarket and Kalshi only have Yes or No contracts available for very limited outcomes, from who the match winner will be to whether there will be above or under a select number of goals. 

Fans of accumulators, also known as ‘accas’, will be disappointed by prediction markets, too, as there’s no option at all to build multi-bet slips. Instead, you’re limited to just single bet contracts due to the business model used by these prediction market platforms. For some, it’s not an issue, while others see it as too limiting from a bettor’s perspective. 

Do Prediction Markets Let You Cash Out Early? 

The good news is that prediction markets do, most of the time, allow you to cash out early, just like how most of the major bookmakers do. Whichever football match you’ve selected a contract for, you can sell the active contract back to the open order book at the current market bid price if you wish to. This can be done before a match has even started or while it’s actively going on. 

Verdict

The big question is whether you should be using prediction markets or sportsbooks over the ongoing 2026-27 season. 

If you’re a serious sports bettor who wants to build accas, experiment with different odds types, and access countless more markets and odds, sportsbooks are still, by far, the superior option. 

However, if you’re a casual sports bettor who wants simplicity above all else, plus the chance to enjoy slightly lower betting fees, prediction markets are arguably the more solid alternative. 

And, of course, there’s nothing stopping you from using both types of betting platforms and interchanging them throughout the season, as this is something that millions of bettors are already actively doing (sometimes, there are better opportunities available on prediction markets, and vice-versa). 

If you opt to start using prediction markets for sports betting, though, it’s highly advised you follow traditional gambling rules and strategies, despite prediction markets not being classified as gambling platforms by law. 

You should always bet with a budget, choose games and markets you have confidence in, and wait for the right betting opportunities to emerge before committing to the ‘contracts’. 

This way, you’ll get the most out of the experience.