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The 2025-26 Champions League is underway and excitement is off the charts! As of matchday four, the competition has seen 246 goals, averaging 3.42 per match. Like the last edition, the 2025/2026 UCL uses a format making all matches fun. Teams are no longer divided into groups. Instead, all 36 participating teams play in one big league. Clubs play eight matches, and the top eight advance automatically to the round of 16.
Teams finishing ninth to 24th will face off in playoffs to complete the round of 16 and chase the trophy. With this format, teams bring their A game, and tournament popularity soars. Across Europe — England, Spain, Finland, Hungary, Macedonia — and in Asia — India and the Philippines — fans are more engaged, watching and wagering on matches.
Fans from the Philippines who want to wager on UCL matches this season will find plenty of bookmakers offering markets and odds. However, as betting experts like Adam Bloszko note, research is key before joining any platform. Punters should read expert opinions and reviews of top sports betting sites philippines before registering.
Despite the 2025/2026 UCL tournament retaining last year's format and delivering multiple goals, many football fans have one question on their lips; what team will win the Champions League this year? Although we can't give a definitive answer, the Opta supercomputer has simulated this year's UEFA Champions League 10,000 times and has given its verdict on the chances certain clubs have to win the tournament. Curious to know what these Opta predictions say? Keep reading!
As seen on Opta’s UCL 25/26 winner predictions, Liverpool are the favorites to win this year's Champions League. The prediction model gives the club a 20.4% probability. Currently the reigning champions of the English Premier League, Liverpool were knocked out in the round of 16 by Paris Saint Germain the last time out.
However, with reinforcements like Florian Wirtz, Alexander Isak, and Hugo Ekitiké, the Merseyside Reds have the attacking arsenal to win their seventh UEFA Champions League title. Their matchday four win over the star-studded Real Madrid shows their intent in going all the way.
Arsenal comes in close second as the favorites to win the 2025/2026 Champions League with a 16.0% possibility. Last time out, their journey ended at the semi-finals where they were eliminated by the clinical PSG team. While they've got a weird record of being the team that have played the most UCL matches (211) without lifting the trophy, they're looking to change their fortunes this year.
The future looks bright, as they've won all their four matches so far, scoring 11 goals. They've also conceded zero goals within this period, a testament to how good their defense is. If they continue their defensive masterclass against future opponents, they could win the title.
Paris Saint-Germain are the reigning champions of the UCL and are the third favorites to win the competition. They've got a 12.1% probability of doing so. If they go all the way again, they'll become the first-ever French team to lift consecutive Champions League titles.
This will be a big deal, as only Real Madrid have managed to do so since the 1992/93 edition when the European Cup was rebranded to become the UEFA Champions League. Although PSG has some tough UCL matches around the corner, they've got players with experience in winning on the biggest stage. This makes them a contender for winning the biggest trophy in European soccer.
Man City won their first UCL title in 2023. But since then, they haven't gotten close to the final. In the 2024/2025 campaign, they had an embarrassing stint in the contest. They finished 22nd in the league level, and lost to Real Madrid in the playoffs. But they seem to have rediscovered their spark, with players like Erling Haaland and Jérémy Doku leading the charge.
FC Barcelona also has an 8.40% probability to lift the UCL title. Well, this isn't surprising as Barça netted an astonishing 43 goals in 14 matches. Their valiant journey ended in the semi-finals, where they lost to Inter Milan. The team's coach, Hansi Flick, knows how to win UCL games.
While there has been chatter from ex-players and pundits about high egos resulting in poor results, Flick has remained mum about the issue, stating that “I always think to say something about the experts, former players and coaches, but no, I will not do it.”
Chelsea completes our top five list with a 7.0% probability of ending their campaign with the big cup in Budapest according to Opta's supercomputer. The Pensioners defeated Real Betis in last year's UEFA Conference League Final and secured an impressive outing to lift the Club World Cup in the United States.
Out of four UCL matches played so far, Chelsea has won two and drawn one. While this isn't exactly a model start, the presence of electric players like Cole Palmer, Joáo Pedro, and Estēvão can turn the team's fortunes around.
The 2025-26 UEFA Champions League has seen moments of brilliance from certain players. Although Ousmane Dembélé of PSG received the UCL player of the year in the contest’s last edition, injury woes have set him back this season.
Here's what France national team head coach Didier Deschamps had to say about this: “I'm especially sad for Ous. Last season, he was spared from injury, and now he's been hit with a string of injuries.”
In Dembélé’s absence, here are some players delivering MVP-worthy performances so far:
The 2025/2026 UCL is shaping up to be one of the most exciting in recent years. Opta predicts that teams like Liverpool, Arsenal, PSG, Manchester City, Barcelona, or Bayern Munich have the best odds of going all the way in the contest.
With these clubs boasting of star-studded players in their ranks, any one of them could achieve UCL glory. But only time will tell what confetti colors will appear in the 2026 final at Budapest.
The article was provided by Adam Bloszko
